Steve Baron: How to Cast a Vote That Really Counts

On the 13th March 2010, a very dear friend of mine passed away at just 58 years of age. Some of you may remember him. In 1987, he almost pulled off the biggest political upset in the history of elections in Whanganui. His name was Terry Heffernan, and he stood for the much-maligned Social Credit Party whose leaders were Bruce Beetham and Garry Knapp at that time.

On the night, Terry failed to win the electorate seat of Whanganui from Labour’s Russell Marshall by just 27 votes (final majority was 248). These were the old FPP (First-Past-The-Post) days when the Social Credit Party was on a political roll and harnessed over 20% of the vote, only to get 3 Members of Parliament. This, I wholeheartedly believe, was the real impetus for the change to the MMP (Mixed Member Proportional) voting system.

The FPP Problem

Since 1996, our electoral system has operated under MMP. This has opened up parliament, given minority parties a real chance at representation and has reduced wasted votes drastically. Perversely, the way we elect our electorate Members of Parliament is still under the old FPP system, and this has drastically limited the chance of any minor party candidate ever representing Whanganui as our electorate MP.

FPP has helped to maintain the two-party stranglehold since 1935, when Labour candidate Joseph Cotterill first won the seat. The seat has vacillated between the Labour and National parties ever since. That is the nature of the FPP system; it supports the two major political parties because, strategically, people cannot afford to vote for a minor party candidate (unless they are thoroughly convinced that the minor party candidate has a huge chance of winning, which is very rare and highly unusual).

So, an electorate vote for a minor party candidate is very much a wasted vote. When Heffernan almost pulled it off, these were unprecedented times. Labour and National were at a very low ebb, and Social Credit was on a spectacular rise, but even then, Heffernan couldn’t do it. Both Beetham and Knapp were elected in bye-elections, which is often a time when voters will cast a protest vote against the two major parties. However, in 1984, Social Credit candidate Neil Morrison did the impossible and won the seat of Pakuranga in a general election.

The Case for STV

So, come the 23rd September, bookmakers would be offering huge odds for anyone other than Harete Hipango (National) or Steph Lewis (Labour) to win the electorate seat of Whanganui. While I will certainly be casting a party vote this election, I will not, however, be voting for an electorate candidate. Partly because of the old, outdated FPP system we use. FPP does not guarantee that the person we elect has the majority support of the electorate.

Whanganui voters may not totally support either of the National or Labour candidates. The system we use to elect our electorate MP must change, as should the system we use to elect our District Councillors and Mayor. If we used the STV voting system on all these occasions, people could rank their preferences, and that could make a real difference to who is elected. Under STV, that person always has the majority support of their electorate—a definite mandate.

So, under STV, while devout National and Labour supporters may choose to rank Hipango and Lewis as their #1 choice, their second choice may be for one of the minor party candidates because STV takes away strategic voting and allows people to give weight to their vote and to who they really prefer to be elected.

Who knows… maybe the most generally preferred electorate candidate might be from one of the minor parties, and maybe that person should be our next MP for Whanganui? And, perhaps, all those who voted for the 3rd place National Party candidate in 1987, who effectively wasted their vote, may have put Terry Heffernan as their #2 choice under STV, and that may just have carried the day for Heffernan… we will never know. But the question we must all ask ourselves… is FPP really all that democratic? I think not.

True Representation

The other reason I will not be casting an electorate vote is because I have personally spoken to both Hipango and Lewis, quizzing them about their idea of democracy and, in particular, how they will vote on free votes (often referred to as conscience votes) in Parliament. I was extremely disappointed with their responses.

To me, this is a particularly important issue; it runs at the heart of true democracy and representation. However, I accept it may not be important to others who will still vote for one of these candidates regardless. Unfortunately, I do not believe these two candidates seriously wish to truly represent the people of Whanganui.

From the conversation I have had with both of them, it was painfully obvious to me, after a fair amount of political spin and obfuscation, that they are both only interested in what they believe in when it comes to controversial issues decided in a free vote (former MP, Chester Borrows, was no different).

On certain issues, it would not matter to these candidates how their electorate felt about that particular issue; they would vote according to ‘their own conscience’—even if a huge majority of Whanganui voters disagreed with them.

To me, that is not democracy, and that is not representation. What are their options? Well, as Pakuranga MP, Maurice Williamson, once informed me, regarding all free votes in Parliament, he scientifically polled his electorate and voted how the electorate wanted—even if he did not agree. That IS true democracy and it IS true representation.

Published in the Whanganui Chronicle, 13th September 2017.

Steve Baron is a New Zealand-based political commentator and author. He holds a BA with a double major in Economics and Political Science from the University of Waikato and an Honours Degree in Political Science from Victoria University of Wellington. A former businessman in the advertising industry, he founded the political lobby group Better Democracy NZ. https://stevebaron.co.nz